3-1, New Orleans, New York and Denver,
not bad for the wild card round. I still
think that number should be 4-0, Cincinnati was
quite a let down in Houston. Can’t win them all, all of the time I
guess. Last weeks wins have led to
great match ups for the divisional round and below are my picks.
Saturday @ 4:30 PM New Orleans
vs San Francisco:
This is the classic match up of offense vs defense. New Orleans
put up 626 yards and 45 points last week against Detroit.
But those numbers should come as no surprise, New Orleans had the number one ranked offense
in the regular season and the Lions allowed Matt Flynn, back quarterback of the
Packers, to throw for 480 yards and 6 touchdowns in week 17. That being said, San Francisco is a much different defense and
will be a lot harder to contend with.
The 49ers ranked 4th in the regular season and only gave up
14.3 points a game second to only Pittsburgh who gave up 14.2. The deciding factor for my decision this week
is the fact that of the top 11 defense’s the one thing the 49ers give up more
then the others is passing yards. San Francisco gives up 230.9 yards a game, the next
closest team in the top 11 defenses is Seattle
at 219.9 a game. The one thing the
Saints do and do very well is throw the football, the one thing the 49ers do
not defend that well against is the pass.
The Saints have the edge in experience and offense and I think both
factors outweigh San Francisco’s
defense and home field advantage, Saints win 27-17.
Saturday @ 8:00 PM Denver vs New England:
Denver
had the win of the week last week and maybe the win of the playoffs. Everything fell into place for them, the
Steelers were banged up and the Bronco’s playing at Mile High are always
difficult. This week Denver
has to go on the road and into Foxboro, so the home field advantage is gone and
New England is not as banged up as Pittsburgh
was last week. This isn’t the classic
offense vs defense match up people may think.
Denver’s
defense is good, but it ranked 20th in the league this season. Denver does
run the ball and can control the clock against a very poor New
England defense thank ranked 17th against the run
allowing 117.1 a game. However, Tom
Brady and the New England offense doesn’t need that much time to do damage and
if Denver falls
behind early, they are not built to overcome large defects. The Patriots have to much experience and home
field advantage, the season of Tebow will end in non-dramatic fashion, Patriots
31 Denver 21.
Sunday 1:00 PM Houston vs Baltimore:
Houston’s
defense and running game did what it needed to do to win last week against the
Bengals. Foster’s 153 yards and two
touchdowns carried the Houston offense while J.J. Watt made the play of the
game, scoring a defensive touchdown with under a minute to go in the second
quarter that turned a 10-10 ball game into a Houston 17-10 lead. That play basically ended the Bengals season;
they were just too young to overcome a huge mistake. Both the Bengals and the Ravens do two things
very well, run the ball and play defense.
Houston was second in the league in total
defense while Baltimore
was third. The Texans were also second
in the league in rushing offense, averaging 153 yards a game and Baltimore was tenth,
averaging 124.8. Here’s the kicker, the
Ravens ranked second in the league in rushing defense allowing 92.6 yards a
game and the Texans ranked fourth allowing 96.0 yards a game. These teams are so evenly matched that the
only factors I can take into account are experience, coaching and home field
advantage. In all three of those categories
the Ravens win out, Ravens 17 Texans 16.
Sunday @ 4:30 PM New York Giants vs Green Bay:
The Giants put on a clinic last week against a good Falcons
team. They were balanced with both the
run and the pass and the G-Men’s front four may have had their best game of the
season. The Giants are the team this post-season
that has gotten hot and that no-one wants to play. Green
Bay has a few factors to contend with this week: Off the field this week’s tragic death of
Offensive Coordinator Joe Philbin’s son Michael Philbin will have him and the
Packers dealing with something that no-one can be or should have to be prepared
to deal with. This tragedy can cause the
Packers players to fall on one of two sides, 1) they could come out and play
the game of their lives as did Brett Favre when his father passed away a few
years back or, 2) the family tragedy could just be to much to overcome and
could easily take it’s toll on the entire team.
With that being said there are a few football related factors as
well. The Packers ranked 3rd
in offense this season while the Giants ranked 8th. Both teams had a poor defense in the regular
season, the Packers were last in the league while the Giants only ranked 27th. So, again both teams seem to be evenly
matched. I have to say that my decision
has been based on two factors, 1) Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers hasn’t
played a game since week 16 and may be feeling better physically but could also
be rusty, 2) the unimaginable death of a child, no matter how old is just too
much for the Packers to overcome. Giants
34 Green Bay 31.
Last week’s 3-1 record could easily turn to 1-3 or worse 0-4
this week. Every team left could win for
any number of reasons and lose for the same number. There are evenly matched teams that both do
the same things well and there are teams with great offense vs great
defense. This is why we love the NFL and
especially the NFL playoffs. If you
can’t get excited for this weekend of football then you may want to check your
fan card and see if it still works.
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